Key Takeaways:
Alexis Androulakis, a beauty product developer and one half of the duo behind The Lipstick Lesbians, dubbed the current moment in the global beauty market “The Great Beauty Depression,” and no category exemplifies this more than color cosmetics. Despite being the largest category in prestige beauty, color cosmetics remained flat in recent years. In the first half of 2025, the makeup sector within prestige retail posted $5.2 billion in sales, up only 1% compared to the first half of 2024, according to Circana research. Units sold remained flat, as did face makeup, the largest segment in prestige cosmetics. Makeup sold in mass outlets declined in the low single digits, both in dollars and units. But according to beauty industry experts, the makeup sector is poised for a significant resurgence in 2026, marking a turning point for one of the beauty industry’s most resilient categories.
“The ‘clean girl’ era has reached a bit of a peak of saturation,” Androulakis told BeautyMatter. “In order for us to come out of this depression, I think things need to be bolder and bigger…. Color cosmetics, by default, has to come back to elevate people's moods.”
Androulakis predicts a return to makeup of a decade ago: think dramatic cut creases, long-wearing liquid lipsticks, and bold brows. (Anastasia Beverly Hills, this is your moment to stage what could be one of the biggest comebacks in beauty industry history.)
Other experts agree, arguing that consumers yearn for a return to individuality and creativity to fight back against the current sea of sameness visible across social media in recent years. This could look like bolder colors, but some say it could also look like playing up one's own unique features instead of trying to mask them. Across the board, experts pointed to 2026 as a potential inflection point for makeup, possibly rivaling 2016, when the category grew 12% year over year and fueled 82% of the industry’s total growth.
But what new trends will drive growth in color cosmetics in 2026? BeautyMatter tapped industry experts to forecast the styles that they expect to dominate retail shelves and reignite momentum in this stagnant-yet-stable category.
A Return to Individual Taste
For beauty industry veteran and exited founder Angela Ubias, 2025 marked the peak of conformity. Skincare and color cosmetics saw copy-and-paste products, launches, shades, and scents, creating an algorithm-driven sense of uniformity. In 2026, she predicts that color and skin will usher in a return to individuality and escapism, expressed through “bolder aesthetics, more intentional routines, and brands chosen for point of view and cultural relevance rather than reach or default ‘legacy’ luxury.”
The act of gatekeeping, or intentional withholding of information, knowledge, and access, will come back into favor—not as exclusion, but as a form of cultural fluency, Ubias argues. Curating access to specific products or techniques reframes beauty as a practice worth exploring on one’s own, to be fully understood rather than just consumed in an endless loop. Brands and creators that “gatekeep” their unique point of view will come out on top in 2026.
Makeup Made for Live Selling
According to Androulakis, K-beauty is poised to reshape the makeup category in 2026 not just through formulation, but through how products are designed to perform in live, real-time retail and social selling environments.
The latest wave of K-beauty, she noted, is deeply rooted in texture and sensory experience, with product development increasingly influenced by Asia’s dominance in live selling. That shift is forcing brands to think beyond static virality and toward visual and tactile hooks that translate instantly on camera and in live demonstrations.
“The way products are made and the way they’re used on camera are definitely going to be more nuanced this year,” Androulakis said. “It’s no longer just about creating something that goes viral in a short video. Live selling is still underpenetrated, but it’s about to become far more explosive.”
As live commerce scales, Androulakis expects distribution dynamics to begin shaping product strategy in new and unexpected ways.
The Return of Glam Makeup, Circa 2016
Androulakis anticipates a reinvention of past trends, specifically those of 2016, reengineered for today’s formulas, formats, and platforms. This revival won’t be a straight throwback, said Androulakis. Instead, consumers might expect updated pearls, new application techniques, and bolder textures, all driven by what Androulakis calls “aggressive artistry,” or makeup designed to command attention in today’s increasingly saturated content ecosystem.
“We have more content creators on platforms than ever before, and we have this burning desire for more color,” she said. “That desire is going to show up through heightened artistry, more creative, more expressive looks, because breaking through the noise today requires a very different level of impact than it did in 2016.”
Nostalgia Comfort
Beauty brands and consumers are looking to past eras for inspiration, even further back than 2016—from the 1980s through the early 2010s—setting the stage for a makeup nostalgia wave.
“As people are looking for comfort and familiarity during turbulent times, we are seeing signs of brands leaning into nostalgic formats like squeeze lip gloss tubes and collabs with nostalgic brands that remind customers of childhood,” predicted Annie Jackson, co-founder and CEO of Credo Beauty.
In 2025, MAC Cosmetics brought back the fan favorite Pro Lip Erase, a balm that fueled the concealer lip craze of the 2000s. Kylie Cosmetics celebrated its 10th anniversary in October 2025 with the launch of the "King Kylie" collection, featuring throwback Lip Kits and a nostalgic music video that paid homage to Kylie Jenner's iconic early 2010s aesthetic. Jackson predicts that this trend will continue in 2026 as legacy brands look for new ways to maintain relevance, especially among Gen Z.
Emphasis on Artistry and Broader Artistic Hobbies
Jackson predicts a return to makeup as a creative outlet. “Brands are positioning makeup products as artistic tools and the customer as the artist, as well as shining more of a spotlight on makeup artist founders,” she said.
IPSY’s "I Play Beauty" campaign from 2025 reframed beauty as a sport or hobby, to be valued like any art form or creative pursuit. In 2026, this will continue to evolve and expand into new territory. Jackson pointed to the recent trend of brands partnering with design/art studios for product launch events and centering influencer activities such as pottery, ceramics, painting, and drawing as an extension of the emphasis on artistry.
Promoting Natural Texture
Just as freckles were once concealed and are now celebrated, pores and natural skin texture will begin to have their moment.
“Visible pores, texture, and wrinkles will not be seen as flaws, but as proof of lived experience, self-care, and humanity,” beauty product developer Kristen Sgarlato told BeautyMatter. “It also serves as a cultural pushback against hyper-perfect, AI generated beauty. Consumers are craving realism.”
As this mindset grows, brands will be forced to redefine what “beautiful skin” actually looks like in a more human, less artificial way.
Nail as the Most Agile Color Category
According to Sgarlato, nails remain one of the most demanding yet innovative areas of color.
Press-on nails are increasingly popular, especially among the younger generation. Searches for kids' press-ons were up 17% in 2025 on Google, TikTok, and Instagram, according to analytics firm Spate.
“Development cycles are fast, trends move quickly, and the category allows for low-risk experimentation,” she remarked. “The rise of press-on nails reflects this perfectly as a ready-to-wear, high-impact, easy-to-change, no long-term commitment solution. They allow consumers to experiment without the fear associated with a two-week salon manicure.”
In 2026, Sgarlato anticipates that press-on nails will continue to push boundaries, serving as a testing ground for textures, finishes, and design ideas that may later influence the broader color cosmetics category.
More Minis
Taking cues from fragrance sampling, The Future Laboratory anticipates that more makeup brands will launch miniature versions of makeup products in 2026. These diminutive products resonate with consumers for reasons that go beyond travel and convenience. In its annual Future Forecast 2026 report, the trend forecasting consultancy argues that due to rising inflation and economic uncertainty, consumers are increasingly adopting a try-before-you-buy mindset, fueling the boom in mini-formats. Smaller, lower-priced formats enable shoppers to sample widely, indulge in novelty, and access a variety of products without long-term commitment, balancing experimentation with affordability.
“Non-committal by nature, miniproducts are directly tapping into the rise of little treat culture, serving as affordable, low-risk luxuries and driving spontaneous basket additions,” the report stated.
Retailers across the globe are already betting big on going small: Sephora was one of the first retailers to expand its mini-category online, while Target now offers more than 300 mini-products across nearly every beauty category. According to The Future Laboratory, sales of Superdrug’s Mini Studio range rose by 54% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, reaching a value of £211,000 ($282,530). Mini-items are also proving popular with younger consumers at Ulta Beauty, offering an accessible way to trial trending products.
“Trialling culture,” as The Future Laboratory puts it, is especially pronounced among Gen Z, who remain in constant discovery mode. Collectable minis are thriving on Instagram and TikTok, aligning with younger demographics’ aesthetic sensibilities.
“This rise in miniature beauty formats reflects a wider consumer shift towards low-risk discovery and playful self-expression,” the report noted. “As affordability and novelty remain key purchase drivers, consumers are increasingly willing to trial bold colours, limited-edition launches, and mix-and-match routines—turning everyday beauty into a canvas for personal creativity and experimentation.”
Adaptive, Environment-Responsive Makeup
Shannaz Schopfer, founder and CEO of The Beauty Architects, anticipates seeing a surge in technically adaptive systems in the makeup category. These innovations, which include light-reactive powders, hydration-modulating sticks, and pH-adaptive pigments, are designed to adjust instantly to factors like skin chemistry, light, temperature, and daily wear.
“This will be significant because consumers are living more dynamically, with wellness top of mind, and they will expect makeup to maintain skin balance, comfort, and appearance across changing environments rather than perform for a single, static moment,” Schopfer told BeautyMatter.
The Hybridization of Cultures and Textures
According to Androulakis, the next phase of K-beauty’s influence on makeup is more localized to the various regions around the world. Rather than directly copying K-beauty’s makeup lines, Androulakis sees product developers borrowing from K-beauty’s cues. This includes sensory textures, playful packaging, and performance, while also layering in regional expertise and technologies. She references Natasha Denona as an example, which has recently integrated innovations from both Korean and Italian laboratories for its color cosmetics launches.
“We'll see a Japanese and Italian texture come out in this next year,” predicts Androulakis. “To stay competitive, it's no longer going to just be about launching a new lip balm with one different adjustment. The brands and the product developers are going to have to connect multiple touch points to actually be able to break through the noise.”
All of this, Androulakis argued, is driven by the expert or the artist behind the brand, and the increased consumer demand for transparency. The hybridizing of textures will help brands reach new levels of authenticity, especially as live videos continue to be more popular across social media platforms.
Makeup Converges with the Longevity Movement
In 2025, the discussion around skincare products shifted from targeting signs of aging to promoting skin longevity, with an emphasis on cellular health. In 2026, Schopfer predicts that longevity is coming for the makeup category.
She anticipates that makeup will evolve into an extension of skin longevity, potentially incorporating sophisticated skin-biology ingredients (such as NAD+, collagen-boosting actives, and exosomes) into color cosmetics. With these enhancements, makeup could support skin function and resilience over time, including helping regulate daily oxidative stress and inflammation.
“This matters because consumers are embracing pro-aging; makeup will be expected to actively participate in skin health while still delivering immediate beauty,” said Schopfer.
Transitional Textures
Tisha Thompson, makeup artist and founder and CEO of LYS Beauty, predicts a rise in hybrid and transitional products—things like powder-to-cream, cream-to-powder, serum-tinted balms, gel blushes that set down like skin, even complexion products that can flex between coverage levels. This is not a 2-in-1 shampoo-and-conditioner situation: these products have to do two things really well—like prep and perfect, or add color and tangible skincare benefits—to actually earn a permanent spot in someone’s makeup bag.
“I view this trend as kind of double-fold: on one hand, consumers are way more savvy and curious about formulas and what’s actually going on their face, so there’s a real desire for innovation and difference,” Thompson told BeautyMatter. “On the other hand, people are also trying to simplify their routines without sacrificing results.”
Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
According to makeup artist and product developer Kevin James Bennett, the ’90s are making a big comeback across the color cosmetics category. The decade was defined by two polar opposite makeup styles: glam and grunge. “We are now entering into an era where there is not one specific look,” Bennett told BeautyMatter.
Looking at the last 10 years, makeup trends ranged from extreme, “almost drag-style glam” to soft, natural, no-makeup makeup. Bennett predicts that this pendulum swing will open multiple doors in the color cosmetics category.
“It's almost as if, for the first time in my recollection, cosmetic direction is wide open, which is exciting,” he said.
